By Eliot R. Clauss, June 17, 2025
Strategically, it is well past time to recognize that most international disputes, as well as many domestic ones, fester because the current governments of every age predicate their assumed legitimacy by vowing to right the perceived wrongs of the past, at the expense of the present and future of people alive today. These “leaders” are easily recognizable to all of us: Hitler,
Stalin, Mao, Putin, Hugo Chavez, Kim Jong Un and many others. Trump should not add his name to that list of self-aggrandizing and misguided leaders, especially when he has much better options that could truly make him one of history’s most transformational figures.
Trump is right: the Israel-Iran war should stop now to end the recent suffering and damage and to end the instability and tragedies of the Middle East that have plagued the world at least since the end of World War I. Several steps are required.
For its part, the U.S. must refrain from entering this war directly by bombing the Fordow bunker or any other target in Iran, and by refusing to supply Israel with weapons or intelligence beyond what are necessary to maintain the status quo. Iran and Israel can continue to fight, as Trump might say “like children”, until one or both run out of missiles and other implements and the energy for war. Not Bombing Fordow will make Americans and the world safer in both the short term and the long term.
For their part, Iran and Israel must make some fundamental game-changing concessions. Israel must agree to a two-state solution to the Palestinian question, end the fighting in Gaza, and start on the path to reconstruction. Iran must end its goals of “death to Israel” and “death to the US.” And Iran must agree to two new organizing principles of its continued existence: that Israel and Jews worldwide have the same rights as people of every nation, religion, skin color, ideology and stripe to live in peace within their own country according to the wishes of its people; and Iran must end all efforts to produce and use nuclear weapons of any sort.
Finally, the parties should agree to a limited time-frame – three to five years – to devise the process necessary to end the suffering, rebuild and implement a path to a lasting peace within and between all nations in the Middle East.
The world has been afflicted for way too long by foreigners interfering in government selection in sovereign nations while being fundamentally ignorant of a nation’s particular history and culture and making decisions by brute force because they can, not because they have any deep insight or compassion for the local populations or actually care about the well-being of those people or their individual, cultural and national aspirations.
We need to get back to two fundamental principles of international relations at least since the founding of the United Nations. First, that nations are entitled to self-determination in the selection of their government. This includes their style, structure and philosophy of government as well as in the selection of their leaders. Second, that every nation is fundamentally free to exist as it wishes within its own borders and without interfering in the internal sovereign affairs of other nations and as long as their conduct does not exert a destabilizing influence in the world.
Tactically, Trump’s inconsistent public musings about whether or not to get the US involved more directly in the Iran-Iraq war, whether this is solely Israel’s war or is now one waged by the “we” of the US and Israel, whether he wants a diplomatic solution or voluntary unconditional surrender, plus his many other erratic policy inconsistencies on immigration, tariffs, whether to make Canada our 51st state or launching military operations in Greenland, show that Trump, though our President, is not ready for prime time. He has no idea what he is doing, what he should be doing, or what would be best to do. But still, Trump could win the Nobel Peace Prize of all time, or, if he bombs Fordow or gets the US more directly involved in the Israel-Iran war he will go down in infamy. On this one decision at least, the President should live up to his nickname: TACO.
Tactically, no good result will come from Trump bombing the Fordow nuclear development bunker or becoming more directly involved in the Israel-Iran war. Here’s why.
The chance of actually destroying Iran’s nuclear development by bombing Fordow is exceedingly difficult with very limited chances of success. First, the depth of the bunker is beyond the easy reach of the US bunker busting bomb. It is likely it would take three or more bombs to actually penetrate deeply enough to destroy the centrifuge operations believed to be in Fordow. Each attempt to drop a bomb where it is needed exposes the bomber and crew to attack, malfunction or just bad luck.
Second, even if destroyed completely or partially, the Fordow facility can be rebuilt there or somewhere else. Sure, it will take time to rebuild, if the Iranian government maintains its control over its people, but it has done so for many years, so it probably has the capacity to continue.
Third, attacks on a country by foreign interests often drive a repressed populace to support its government and national identity more strongly and against an interfering power. Sort of like the “Stockholm syndrome” on a national scale.
Fourth, most foreign wars the US has been involved in since the end of World War II have become “forever” wars and quagmires, which bleed our soldiers, our families, our national and international reputations and influence and our treasure. The instability in the Middle East has raged since the end of World War I. There is no reason to believe and no evidence to support that “only Trump can fix it.” Indeed, if he had that power he would have prevented this war from starting, brought peace to Gaza and the Middle East, ended the Ukraine-Russia war, gotten China to agree never to invade Taiwan, made Canada our 51st State, acquired Greenland as our 52nd state, and lowered the price of eggs worldwide. Trump getting involved in a foreign war he promised his base he would not do, will end “Trumpism” and J.D. Vance’s chances of ever being President.
Fifth, the likelihood that Trump can complete his second term in office is slim at best. He has violated his oath of office, engaged in rampantly corrupt conduct as a government official, is beset by lawsuits challenging his power, authority and conduct no matter which way he looks, and his indecision on almost any topic, shows that his Administration is teetering at every angle.
Sixth, Trump has incomplete support from with the Republican Party and even within the MAGA base, and has delivered nothing but some performative moments and visuals, which have all the power of a movie trailer showcasing a film that will never be made.
Seventh, just look at Trump’s track record. He is a loser multiple times over. If he does not bomb Fordow, whatever happens he can not be called a loser, since he never entered the game. If he bombs Fordow, at best he will get a temporary win, which will transform itself into one of the World’s biggest historical losses. Unless of course he plans to build a ski resort and a bit- coin casino there after the dust clears.
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Eliot Clauss is a retired New York attorney having been involved in litigation and business law for more than 40 years, including 30 years in US-China trade and investment, after working early in
his career on Wall Street and as a Federal Prosecutor in the Southern District of New York. In his current position, Eliot’s primary responsibility is walking his dog. He can be reached at
ercny1@yahoo.com.